Super Typhoon Rosal is nearing its closest approach to extreme Northern Luzon, bringing a growing risk of heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous seas even though PAGASA does not expect it to make landfall in the Philippines. At 4 pm on Tuesday, October 20, the storm was 1,270 kilometers east of Central Luzon, moving west northwest at 25 km/h.
Rosal entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility at 10:40 am. By PAGASA’s 5 pm bulletin, maximum sustained winds had climbed to 195 km/h from 185 km/h, while gusts increased to 240 km/h from 230 km/h. The storm is expected to come closest to extreme Northern Luzon from Thursday, October 22, to Friday, October 23.
Rain and wind threats across the country
The storm’s trough may bring scattered rain and thunderstorms to more areas on Tuesday evening, including all of Bicol and Eastern Visayas. From Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon, PAGASA forecasts 100 to 200 millimeters of rain in Batanes and 50 to 100 millimeters in Cagayan.
Batanes, Ilocos Norte and the Babuyan Islands are expected to have isolated light rain for now as northeasterly winds affect the region. Rosal’s outer bands and the same windflow are forecast to produce strong to gale-force gusts across a wider area over the next three days:
Tuesday, October 20
- Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Isabela, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, most of Caraga, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Sarangani, Davao del Sur and Davao Occidental
Wednesday, October 21
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Polillo Islands, Bicol, Romblon, Eastern Visayas, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Bohol, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, Sarangani and Zamboanga del Norte
Thursday, October 22
- Most of the country
As of 5 pm Tuesday, PAGASA had placed the following areas under Signal No. 1, warning residents to prepare for strong winds:
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- Northern Ilocos Norte, including Pagudpud
- Northern and eastern mainland Cagayan: Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-lo, Santa Teresita, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Buguey, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Ballesteros, Abulug and Allacapan
- Northeastern Isabela: Maconacon, Divilacan and Palanan
- Northeastern Catanduanes: Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga and Gigmoto
PAGASA said the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal from Rosal is Signal No. 2 or 3.
Hazardous seas expected along exposed coasts
Sea conditions are forecast to deteriorate around areas exposed to Rosal. PAGASA’s 24-hour outlook puts the following coasts at risk of very rough seas, with waves reaching 4.5 meters. Travel is risky for all vessels:
- Northern and eastern Catanduanes; the Isabela seaboard; northeastern mainland Cagayan; southeastern Batanes; and northeastern Babuyan Islands
Rough seas could produce waves up to 4 meters along the northern and eastern Batanes coasts; the remaining eastern coasts of the Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan; northern Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur; northern and eastern Northern Samar and Eastern Samar; and eastern Albay and Sorsogon. PAGASA advises small vessels not to venture out.
- Waves up to 3.5 meters are forecast along the northern and eastern coasts of the Polillo Islands, Aurora’s northern coast and the remaining Batanes seaboard.
- Waves up to 3 meters are expected along northern Quezon; the eastern coasts of Dinagat Islands and the Siargao-Bucas Grande Island Group; and the remaining coasts of Cagayan, Aurora and Camarines Norte.
Small vessels should take precautions or avoid sailing where seas may reach 2.5 meters: the coasts of Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte and Davao Occidental; eastern Davao Oriental; northern and eastern Quezon; and Catanduanes’ remaining coast.
Waves of up to 2 meters are forecast along the coasts of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; southern Davao Oriental; the remaining northern and eastern coasts of Camarines Sur; and the remaining coasts of the Polillo Islands, Dinagat Islands and the Siargao-Bucas Grande Island Group. Small vessels should also take precautions or avoid sailing in these areas.
Track and intensity outlook
PAGASA expects Rosal to continue west northwest through Wednesday, October 21, then turn generally northwest until Friday morning. From Friday afternoon, it may move north northwest to north, leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday evening or early Saturday morning, October 24.
The storm could strengthen further in the coming hours over the Philippine Sea. PAGASA’s forecast also allows for Rosal to weaken into a typhoon on Thursday evening or early Friday morning.
Rosal is the Philippines’ 18th tropical cyclone of 2026 and the first recorded in October. PAGASA had estimated that one or two cyclones could form during the month.
The country is transitioning to the northeast monsoon, or amihan, after PAGASA announced the end of the southwest monsoon, known as habagat, on October 5. The coming amihan period could be warmer than usual: a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific is forecast to become very strong in the fourth quarter of 2026.
