Overview of Tropical Storm Maymay's Landfall
Tropical Storm Maymay, also known as Kujira, made landfall in Magsingal, Ilocos Sur, early Thursday morning, August 6, at 2 AM. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that the storm was advancing eastward at a speed of only 10 kilometers per hour (km/h).
Current Status and Forecast
Maymay is currently exhibiting maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gusts reaching up to 105 km/h. As it traverses the mountainous areas of Northern and Central Luzon, PAGASA anticipates that the storm will weaken into a tropical depression and eventually transform into a low-pressure area through Thursday.
Rainfall Impacts
The provinces in Northern and Central Luzon are already experiencing heavy rainfall as a result of Maymay. The forecast for the period from Wednesday evening to Thursday evening indicates:
- Intense to torrential rain exceeding 200 millimeters in Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Benguet.
- Heavy to intense rainfall between 100-200 mm in Pangasinan, Abra, Zambales, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and Ifugao.
- Moderate to heavy rain between 50-100 mm in Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Nueva Vizcaya, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Bataan, Pampanga, and Bulacan.
By Thursday evening, rain patterns are expected to persist, with moderate to heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) forecasted for Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Benguet.
Additional Rainfall from the Southwest Monsoon
Beyond Maymay, much of Southern Luzon and parts of Western Visayas are affected by the southwest monsoon, known locally as habagat. Specific forecasts include:
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm) in Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas from Wednesday evening to Thursday evening.
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm) in Occidental Mindoro, and moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm) in Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, and Batangas from Thursday to Friday.
- By Friday evening, expect heavy rainfall again in various areas including Zambales and Bataan.
Warnings for Flooding and Landslides
The heavy rains from both Maymay and the southwest monsoon raise significant concerns regarding potential flooding and landslides across the affected regions. Authorities urge caution as these conditions develop.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals
As of 2 AM Thursday, the following areas are placed under tropical cyclone wind signals:
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), posing a minor to moderate threat to life and property:
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- Parts of La Union including Luna, Caba, Santol, and others
- Northwestern Pangasinan, Abra, and western Kalinga
- Parts of Benguet and others as detailed by PAGASA.
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), with minimal to minor threats:
- Areas include the rest of La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, and Kalinga.
- Wider areas including Nueva Vizcaya, northern Zambales, and parts of Aurora also fall under this category.
Even regions not formally under wind signal warnings are likely to encounter strong gusts due to the storm's proximity and its interaction with the southwest monsoon.
Sea Conditions and Travel Advisories
Travel by sea may be hazardous as PAGASA issues warnings about bad sea conditions:
- Very rough seas (waves up to 5 meters) are expected in the seaboards of Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan.
- Rough seas (waves up to 4 meters) will be found in various other regions, including the northern part of Batanes and portions of Isabela.
- Moderate seas (waves up to 2.5 meters) will affect a broader range of areas, prompting vessels to exercise caution.
Looking Ahead: Potential Developments
Tropical Storm Maymay marks the 13th tropical cyclone in the Philippines for this year, and it follows closely after Tropical Depression Luis. Observers are keeping an eye on Typhoon Dolphin, which could potentially become the 14th tropical cyclone if it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Currently, Dolphin is located 1,565 kilometers east northeast of extreme Northern Luzon, exhibiting weakening conditions as it approaches Japan's southern islands.
The ongoing situation calls for vigilance as PAGASA suggests that August could yield two to four more tropical cyclones entering the area, reinforcing the already precarious weather outlook for the month.
